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THE DEED BRIEF
📊 QUICK POLL (5 sec - no wrong answers)
We’ll tailor next week’s tactic to the top concern.
What worries you most about the housing market right now?
📊 LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
Most readers lead with a 2% seller credit to points (payment reduction). The “Buyer’s Market” Everyone Talks About? Prove It.
⏳ TL;DR
Q: How do you prove it’s a buyer leaning market in your ZIP, today?
A: Pull three numbers: MOS (months of supply), DOM trend (days on market, rising or flat), and % of listings with price cuts. A practical “buyer leaning” combo is MOS ≥ 6, DOM ≥ 45–60 and rising, and price cuts ≥ 30–40%. That’s your green light to ask for credits/points framed to the seller as faster close.
WHAT MOST PEOPLE MISS
Headlines ≠ your ZIP. Check your ZIP/city page, metro averages can hide pockets of leverage.
The combo matters. One soft metric is noise; MOS + rising DOM + fresh price cuts is signal.
Speak seller, think investor. You analyze in $/mo for positive cashflow; you negotiate as “same net, fewer days, higher certainty.”
Source: Redfin Local Market Data (data links provided are free public resources) 🙌
🧲 MARKET CHECK (YOUR LEVERAGE RADAR)
Rates: 30-yr fixed 6.24% (week ending Nov. 13) Essentially, flat week over week. Freddie Mac
Weekly pulse: Pending sales -0.3% YOY (first dip in 4 months) and median days to pending 49 (slowest for this time of year since 2019) per Redfin’s latest four week tracker.
Time on market / inventory trend: Active listings +15.3% YOY, median time on market 63 days. More choice, more time to negotiate. Realtor.com
Rents/vacancy: National rent roughly -0.9% YOY; vacancy ~7.2% (record). Apartment List
Mini legend: 📦 MOS ≥6 buyer-leaning • ⏱ DOM ↑ seller anxiety • ✂️ Price cuts ↑ ask for credits
Our take: We’re not calling a blanket buyer’s market. But when your ZIP shows higher DOM and widespread price cuts, your odds of landing seller credits rise.
🏡 THIS WEEK’S MOVE
Speak seller, Think Investor (quick scripts)
Same Net, Faster Close: “Keep price at $__; we’ll close by [DATE]. In exchange, a 2% credit - same net as a $__ cut, cleaner path to close.”
Certainty Trade: “Fully underwritten, short inspection, flexible close. Cover a 2% credit and we’ll sign today.”
Credit for Repairs > Repairs: “Skip contractors - give a $3,000 repair credit; we’ll handle post-close”
How to prep:
Consider: ask your agent for a seller net sheet at (a) current list price, (b) list price - $10k less, and (c) list + 2% credit. You choose the structure that hits your payment goal privately.
WHERE TO LOOK (free helpful links):
Realtor.com Market Trends (MOS)
Redfin City Pages (DOM & price drops)
🧑💻 INVESTOR CORNER — REAL EXAMPLE (educational)
The question: DOM 72 + 3% price cut. On a $410,000 SFR, is a 2% seller credit to points stronger than another $10k off?
Numbers (conservative):
Baseline PITI: ~$2,430/mo (6.3% @ 30y; taxes + ins ~ $575/mo)
Rent reality (Year-1): Nearby comps show “1 month free” → effective rent ~ $1,950/mo
$10k price cut: ≈ $67/mo impact
2% credit to points (~$8,200): ≈ $110–$145/mo impact (at ~6.2–6.4%; verify with your lender).
Why it might work: 72 DOM + a fresh cut = seller prioritizes certainty.
Why it might not: Hot micro-pocket or underpriced can still draw bids — Speed & Certainty beats credit (use pre-underwrite, flexible close, tight timelines).
Our take: In this setup, we’d lead with the 2% credit to a permanent buydown (convert to $/mo), keep price near ask, and solve their DOM problem with speed + clean terms. If payback > 24 months, flip to a small price shave + closing-cost credit.
Assumptions: 30 year fixed ~6.2-6.4%; 12-month lease; “1 month free” concession in the comp set; taxes/insurance verified via Two-Call.
🔎 DEAL DECODER
CREDITS VS. PRICE (The 3-Step Negotiation Ladder)
Step 1 - Solve the payment first (credit → points).
Ask for a credit sized to hit a target payment (not a percent).
Quick size: Needed credit ~ (Target $/mo gap x 24)→ only if payback ≤ 24 mo.
If the seller balks, keep the credit and reduce points (don’t jump to price yet).
Example: You’re $120/mo over target → ask for a credit sized to buy points that cut ~$120/mo (≈ $2,880 “budget” using the 24× rule).
Step 2 — Trade structure, not dollars.
When price is sacred, swap to certainty terms for value: fully underwritten approval, short inspection window, flexible close, and seller-paid lock extension. Keep a smaller credit on the table so your payment win survives.
Step 3 — Price is the cleanup hitter.
When the payment is close but not there, finish with a small price shave.
Fast math @ today’s rates: ≈ $6–$7/mo per $1k price drop.
Use only to bridge the last $25–$50/mo after credits.
Move | Typical $/mo impact | When it wins |
|---|
2% credit → points | $110–$150/mo | Hold ≥24 mo; DOM 60+ + recent cut |
$10k price cut | ~$60–$70/mo | Rates rising / won’t buy points |
Lock extension paid | Avoids re-lock cost | Slow underwriting, tight closing |
🎯 One Action (90 seconds)
Save a search named “DOM ≥60 + Cut — [ZIP]”. When one hits, run Two-Call, compute your $/mo gap, and ask for a credit sized to that gap (use gap x 24). If payback > 24 months, downshift to smaller credit + minor price shave.
🔥 When the Listing Is Actually HOT
Lead with the Speed & Certainty package (fully underwritten, short inspection, flexible close, capped escalation, appraisal plan, backup offer). Add a tiny credit for fees if you can; otherwise win on certainty, not concessions.
🌐 SOURCES
PMMS (Nov 13): 30-yr fixed 6.24%. Freddie Mac
NAR (Oct): Inventory ~4.6 MOS. National Association of REALTORS®
Realtor (Oct): Time on market ~62 days, active listings up 17% YoY. Realtor
Redfin (Oct): Share of price drops at a record seasonal pace; deeper buyer discounts vs 2019. Redfin
Apartment List (Oct 29): Rents −0.9% YoY; vacancy 7.2% (record). Apartment List
TradingEconomics: Housing data, downloadable charts
⚖️ COMPLIANCE
Education, not financial/legal/tax advice. Markets vary by ZIP and property. Verify taxes, insurance, rent, and local rules before acting.
Home insurance costs continue to climb, with premiums rising over 9% this year and more than 60% in the past five years. However, coverage hasn’t kept pace, leaving many homeowners paying significantly more for less protection. With affordability becoming a growing concern, it’s more important than ever to compare options—check out Money’s handy home insurance tool to find the best fit for you.
Until next time,
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