THE DEED BRIEF
QUICK POLL (5 sec - no wrong answers)
Pick what you’d target first in your market—pure preference, not a quiz.
Which DOM range would you target first in your market?
⏳ TL;DR
Q: WHEN DO SELLERS ACTUALLY NEGOTIATE ON CREDITS?
A: When a listing is ~60+ days on market and has a recent price cut. That combo materially raises the odds your credit/points request lands. Lead with $/month impact (not “$9k lump sum”) and close the loop with real taxes + insurance from the Two Call Diligence (link below - it’s free for subscribers 😎).
WHAT MOST PEOPLE MISS
“Percent off” doesn’t persuade; $/month does.
DOM ≥60 + recent cut = peak leverage window in many metros (confirm locally).
Heads-up: heat pockets exist. If a home is new this week, A-location, turnkey, or underpriced, expect competition, not credits. Use our Speed & Certainty play (below). Source: October Monthly Housing Trends Report
🧲 MARKET CHECK (YOUR LEVERAGE RADAR)
THE SUPPLY LINE IS SOFTENING
Rates: 30-yr fixed 6.17% (week of Oct 30). A notch lower than a month ago = modest cushion. Freddie Mac
Supply: 4.6 months (Sept). Nationally near “balanced,” but metro splits matter. National Association of REALTORS®
Time on market: ~62 days (Sept). Longer marketing times = more room for credits. Realtor
Rents/vacancy: National rent −0.9% YoY; vacancy 7.2% (record). Price Year-1 conservatively. Apartment List
Mini legend: 📦 MOS ≥6 buyer-leaning • ⏱ DOM ↑ seller anxiety • ✂️ Price cuts ↑ ask for credits
🏡 THIS WEEK’S MOVE
THE DOM STRATEGY (3 MIN)
Filter: Your ZIP → DOM ≥60 and Price reduced (last 30 days).
Calculate: Run the Two-Call (tax + insurance) so your payment is real.
Convert: Ask for credits or a permanent buydown, but always translate to $/month.
Beginner lane: Find three 60+ day listings; price a simple 2% credit in $/mo.
Operator lane: Model credits vs points at today’s rate and −25 bps; pick the cheaper $/mo path.
📊 SNAPSHOT (one stat + chart)
Stat: Housing starts 1.307M SAAR (Aug), −8.5% m/m; single-family 890k. Translation: builders cooled. Existing listings linger longer—negotiation lives there. Census.gov
🔎 DEAL DECODER
CREDITS VS. PRICE (the 60-second chooser)
Hold ≥24 months? Consider a permanent buydown—only if payback ≤ 24 mo.
May refi/move sooner? Seller credits → lower cash today + flexibility.
Always: Re-run cash flow with conservative Year-1 rent (soft rents + high vacancy). Apartment List
👉 TWO-CALL DILIGENCE SNAPSHOT
🔥 If it’s hot instead: Speed & Certainty (for multiple-offer listings)
Pre-underwrite (not pre-qual).
Escalation clause with a hard ceiling.
Appraisal plan: small coverage buffer or capped gap.
Inspection: shorter window or informational-only; later ask for a repair credit (never waive safety).
Timeline: flexible close / seller rent-back / lender-paid lock extension.
Tighten what you can (contingencies you can live with).
Backup offer ready (be first call if it falls out).
🎯 One Action (90 seconds)
Save a search named “DOM ≥60 + Cut — [ZIP]”. When you spot a fit, tell your agent you’ll be negotiating via $/mo (credits or points—whichever lowers the payment more) and bring your Two-Call numbers.
🌐 SOURCES
PMMS (Oct 30): 30-yr fixed 6.17%. Freddie Mac
NAR (Sept): Inventory 1.55M = 4.6 MOS. National Association of REALTORS®
Realtor.com (Sept): Time on market ~62 days, active listings up 17% YoY. Realtor
Redfin (Oct 2): Share of price drops at a record seasonal pace; deeper buyer discounts vs 2019. Redfin
Apartment List (Oct 29): Rents −0.9% YoY; vacancy 7.2% (record). Apartment List
U.S. Census (Aug):Housing starts 1.307M SAAR; single-family 890k. Census.gov
Until next time,
Your 10-minute real estate playbook starts here
