THE DEED BRIEF
📊 QUICK POLL (5 sec - no wrong answers)
What’s your #1 blocker right now?
📊 LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
When do you check real taxes & insurance?
Before touring: 66.7% (pro move)
After offer: 16.7%
During inspection: 16.7%
Our take: Pros close info gaps early. We’ll keep tuning the Two-Call so you can lock real PITI in minutes.
⏳ TL;DR
Q: What does Fannie Mae’s latest outlook mean for investors right now?
A: Nationally, the forecast points to a gradual improvement (no crash, no rocket). In that “slow-thaw” world, your edge is local: MOS (months of supply), DOM (days on market), and % price cuts. When your ZIP shows DOM ≈60+ and a recent price cut, seller credits/points land far more often. Do your math in $/month privately; present the ask as same-net credits + faster, cleaner close (not percent-off).
WHAT MOST INVESTORS MISS
Macro ≠ your micro. National averages hide ZIP-level leverage pockets.
Certainty trades win. In a slow market, sellers value speed/clean terms as much as price.
Rent reality matters. Soft concessions nearby? Underwrite effective Year-1 rent before you negotiate.
🧲 MARKET CHECK (INVESTOR INTEL)
Rates: 30-yr loans ~6.23% Freddie Mac
Rents/vacancy: National rent roughly -1% MOM; -1.1% YOY; vacancy ~7.2%. Apartment List
The backdrop: Fannie Mae’s November outlook points to muted sales volume near-term with a gradual recovery as borrowing costs ease over time—i.e., a long runway for negotiation, not a cliff or a sprint. Mortgage rates (PMMS) have drifted lower from their peaks, and resale inventory is taking longer to move in many metros.
Our take: Longer marketing times + cautious buyers = more stale listings → more credits (rate buydown, lock-extension paid, closing costs).
🏡 THIS WEEK’S MOVE
“Macro Map” to ZIP-Level Leverage (3 steps, 4 minutes)
Screen: Pull MOS, DOM trend, % price cuts for your ZIP (or nearest city page). If DOM ~60+ and price cut in last 30 days, tag it.
Underwrite: Run Two-Call (county tax + landlord insurance) to lock real PITI. If apartments nearby are advertising promos, convert asking rent → effective Year-1 rent.
Negotiate: Ask for a 2% credit sized to hit your target payment (internal $/mo math) and present it as same net to the seller with speed/certainty.
🧑💻 INVESTOR CORNER
“OUR TAKE” ON THE OUTLOOK
Macro view: Fannie’s base case favors a slow-thaw—no flood of forced sellers, no V-shaped rebound.
Our take (how to play it):
Hunt time, not headlines. Your leverage is time on market + recent cuts, not whether CNBC says “buyer’s market.”
Solve the seller’s problem. They fear more time; you offer speed & certainty (fully underwritten approval, tight timelines) in exchange for credits that solve your payment.
Price vs. credits: In a drift-down rate world, credits toward a permanent buydown often beat a straight price cut—if payback ≤24 months. Otherwise, take a modest price shave and keep refi flexibility.
🔎 DEAL DECODER
THE INVESTOR'S NEGOTIATION LADDER
Step 1 — Solve your payment first (credit → points).
Quick size: Needed credit ≈ (your $/mo gap × 24). Use only if payback ≤24 mo.
Seller balks? Keep a smaller credit and reduce points (don’t jump to price yet).
Step 2 — Trade structure, not dollars.
Swap to certainty terms: fully underwritten approval, short inspection window, flexible close, seller-paid lock extension.
Step 3 — Price is the clean-up hitter.
If payment is close but not there, finish with a small price shave.
Fast math at today’s rates: ≈ $6–$7/mo per $1k price drop—use it to bridge the last $25–$50/mo after credits.
At-a-glance impacts (typical ranges):
2% credit → points: ≈ $110–$150/mo (increases your cashflow)
$10k price cut: ≈ $60–$70/mo (increases your cashflow, just not as much)
Lock extension paid: avoids re-lock cost; preserves your plan
🎯 ONE ACTION (90 seconds)
Save a search named “DOM ≥60 + Cut — [ZIP]”. When one hits, run Two-Call, compute your $/mo gap, and ask for a credit sized to that gap. If payback >24 months, downshift to a small credit + minor price shave.
🌐 SOURCES
PMMS (Nov 20): 30-yr fixed 6.23%. Freddie Mac
NAR (Oct): Inventory ~4.4 MOS. National Association of REALTORS®
Realtor (Oct): Time on market ~63 days, active listings up 17% YoY. Realtor
Apartment List (Nov): Rents −1% YoY; vacancy 7.2%. Apartment List
TradingEconomics: Housing data, downloadable charts
⚖️ COMPLIANCE
Education for real estate investors, not financial/legal/tax advice. Investment property taxes and insurance requirements vary significantly by location. Always verify non-homestead rates and landlord insurance requirements before making offers.
Until next time,
Your 10-minute real estate playbook starts here
