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THE DEED BRIEF
📊 THIS WEEK’S POLL
Where are you seeing the best rent resilience right now?
⏳ TL;DR
Q: How do you spot rent-resilient pockets—fast?
A: Cross 3 signals in the same ZIP: (1) Migration momentum (people arriving), (2) Stable effective rent (concessions-adjusted), (3) Softer for-sale conditions (DOM/price cuts). If two of three point your way, you’ve got a real shot at a Green deal.
WHAT MOST INVESTORS MISS
List rents lie—price Year-1 using effective rent.
Migration is local: a metro can be flat while one school district crushes it.
“Hot listing” ≠ hot rental. Rent demand ≠ purchase demand.
We cross-check heat with mover indices (Redfin migration, LinkedIn Workforce, U-Haul/United Van Lines) before bidding.
🧲 MARKET CHECK (INVESTOR INTEL)
Interest Rates: 30-yr fixed averaged ~6.15% the week ending Dec 31 (lowest of 2025) Freddie Mac
Rents/vacancy: National median rent down ~1% YoY; vacancy at ~7.2% (record high in their index). Translation: price Year-1 with discipline Apartment List
Mover Signal (who’s inbound/outbound):
U-Haul 2025: Texas #1 growth state; FL/NC/TN also top-tier; Oregon jumps sharply—DIY mover lens. U-Haul International Report
United Van Lines 2025: Inbound tilt for OR/WV/SC/DE/MN; TX & FL = more “balanced” on full-service moves. United Van Lines National Movers Study
Redfin migration (2024→2025): Net inflows slowed in parts of FL/TX (e.g., Tampa, Dallas)—don’t assume last year’s boom. Redfin
LinkedIn Workforce: City-to-city worker flows help sanity-check higher-income renter demand. December Workforce Report
🏡 THIS WEEK’S MOVE
The 3-Minute Migration Pocket Test
Pin the pocket: Pick one ZIP/school district where you’d actually buy.
Pull rent reality (60 sec): Apartment List → your metro → scan rent trend + vacancy; adjust for any concessions you see to get effective rent. Apartment List
Check leverage (60 sec): Redfin city page → DOM trend + % price drops.
Quick score (60 sec):
Effective rent flat to ↑ = +1
Vacancy flat to ↓ = +1
DOM ↑ or price cuts ↑ = +1
2+ points = shortlist. Now run Two-Call (taxes/insurance) and see if it pencils.
🧑💻 INVESTOR CORNER
Using mover data without overfitting
“Rent-resilient pockets” = places where inbound migration + firm effective rent + buyer leverage (DOM/price cuts) overlap. Use two lenses minimum—e.g., a truck/van index (U-Haul or United Van Lines) plus a job/migration lens (LinkedIn Workforce or Redfin migration). Then verify vacancy/rent trend on Apartment List before you pencil the deal.
How to plug it into underwriting (quick rules):
Year-1 income: Use effective rent [(paid months × list rent) ÷ 12 − waived fees ÷ 12].
Vacancy safety: Add +1–2 pts if mover lenses conflict; keep base if both say inbound.
Credit vs. price: If you need payment relief and points pay back ≤ 24 months, steer credits toward points; else take price/repair credits.
Watchlist Metro | Mover Lens | Cross-check | Our Read |
|---|
Raleigh-Durham, NC | Strong inbound on mover indexes; steady hiring | LinkedIn worker inflow & BLS metro jobs | Buy-&-hold screen; keep Year-1 rent conservative, add ≤1–2 pts vacancy buffer. |
Tampa Bay, FL | Inflow cooled | Apartment List vacancy trend flat/down? | Still ZIP-specific; price with effective rent first. |
Eugene–Springfield, OR | United Van Lines inbound leader | Redfin DOM/price cuts locally | Small SFRs near campuses may hold rent; leverage varies by submarket. |
🔎 DEAL DECODER
The Rent-Resilience Ladder
Step 1 — Price the real income
• If nearby comps show “1 month free,” effective rent = (11 × rent) ÷ 12. Build your model on that number, not the flyer.
Step 2 — Buy payment efficiently
• Ask for seller credits sized to close your $/mo gap only if a permanent buydown pays back ≤ 24 months; otherwise prefer price/repair credits.
Step 3 — Stress the pocket
• Add +15–25% buffer to taxes/insurance and +1–2 pts to vacancy. If still Green, it’s real.
🎯 ONE ACTION (90 seconds)
Create a saved search named “Rent-resilient shortlist — [YOUR ZIP]”. Each time you add a candidate, attach (a) effective rent note, (b) DOM/price-cut snapshot, (c) Two-Call monthly. If two of three signals stay positive for 30 days, schedule showings.
🌐 ADDITIONAL SOURCES
Freddie Mac PMMS – Mortgage rate weekly.
NAR – Inventory & months of supply.
Apartment List National Rent Report — Nov rents down ~1% YoY; vacancy ~7.2%– National Rent Report.
ATTOM – Q3 2025 Home Flipping Report.
U-Haul Growth Index 2025 — TX #1; FL/NC/TN top-tier; OR jump. U-Haul International
United Van Lines 2025 — Inbound OR/WV/SC/DE/MN; TX/FL balanced commentary. United Van Lines
Redfin Migration (Apr 2025) — Net inflows to FL/TX metros slowed (Tampa, Dallas step-downs). Redfin
LinkedIn Workforce Report (Dec 2025) — City-to-city worker flows to sanity-check higher-income demand. Economic Graph
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⚖️ COMPLIANCE
Education for real estate investors, not financial/legal/tax advice. Investment property taxes and insurance requirements vary significantly by location. Always verify non-homestead rates and landlord insurance requirements before making offers.
Until next time,
Your 10-minute real estate playbook starts here
