THE DEED BRIEF
THE SHORT VERSION
Mortgage rates finally bent lower, new construction cooled, and resale inventory sits above last year - yet momentum into fall is mixed. Here’s what to watch and what to do. Reuters
FIRST THING THAT MATTERS
MORTGAGE RATES ARE ROLLING OVER (FINALLY)
Thirty-year fixed quotes slipped into the mid-6% this month.
MBA’s weekly read clocked ~6.39% (lowest since Oct 2024) and Freddie Mac’s PMMS shows the same down-drift—helped by easing macro and a Fed cut, though mortgage rates still key off the 10-year Treasury more than the Fed itself. Translation: affordability pressure eased a notch and sidelined borrowers are peeking back in. Reuters
SO WHAT (Investor POV)
If you’ve been modeling at 7%+, re-run DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) at 6.4–6.7%—small moves can revive marginal deals.
For existing loans, refi windows may open sooner than you penciled—start lender conversations now. Reuters
SECOND THING THAT MATTERS
THE SUPPLY LINE IS SOFTENING
August housing starts fell to 1.307M SAAR (-8.5% m/m) with single-family at 890k (-7.0% m/m); permits eased to 1.312M (single-family 856k, -2.2% m/m). Builders remain cautious despite headlines about rate relief, which points to less new supply landing in 2026 if this trend holds. Census.gov
SO WHAT (Investor POV)
If you’ve been modeling at 7%+, re-run DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) at 6.4–6.7%—small moves can revive marginal deals.
For existing loans, refi windows may open sooner than you penciled—start lender conversations now. Reuters
THIRD THING THAT MATTERS
MORE RESALE INVENTORY THAN LAST YEAR - BUT MOMENTUM IS MIXED
Nationally, active listings rose ~21% YoY in August - 22 straight months of growth. Realtor.com’s new months-of-supply series pegs the U.S. around balanced, with a wide metro split; Redfin shows prices up ~1.6% YoY, sales down ~2.9%, and homes for sale up ~10%. More choice, slower churn. Realtor
SO WHAT (Investor POV)
Deal flow is back, but speed + certainty win. Use a checklist to separate true mis-pricing from stale listings.
Metro split matters. Confirm the months of supply in your target market before applying national headlines. Realtor
The 10-MINUTE MOVE THIS WEEK
THE 1-MINUTE FIT CHECK
Download the 1-Minute Fit Check (link below) - three inputs, one subtraction, traffic-light signal.
👉 How it works: Write Rent, Monthly Payment, add a Buffer (30–50%), then compute Leftover = Rent − (Payment + Buffer).
👉 Signal: Green ≥ $200 AND ≥ 8% of rent; Yellow $1–$199; Red ≤ $0 (see guide).
A FINAL NOTE
One macro line we’re watching
August CPI: +0.4% m/m, +2.9% y/y; shelter +0.4% m/m. If mortgage rates keep easing, watch how quickly demand responds relative to still-elevated prices/incomes - this spread decides whether fall is a measured thaw or a false start. Bureau of Labor Statistics
SOURCES
MBA weekly + Fed context (rates drift to ~6.39%; mortgage rates track the 10-year). Reuters
Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly 30-yr fixed trend). Freddie Mac
U.S. Census, New Residential Construction — August 2025 (starts/permits). Census.gov
Realtor.com, Monthly Housing Market Trends — Aug 2025 (inventory growth; months of supply framework). Realtor
Redfin, U.S. Housing Market Overview — Aug 2025 (prices, sales, inventory). Redfin
BLS, CPI — Aug 2025 (headline + shelter). Bureau of Labor Statistics
Until next time,
Your 10-minute real estate playbook starts here
