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📊 POLL SNAPSHOT
WHAT YOU WANT US TRACKING
Question: Which pipeline signal should we track monthly for your metro?
SF starts: 60%
New MF permits (5+ units): 40%
Upcoming completions: 0%
“Authorized but not started” backlog: 0%
Why this makes sense:
You’re prioritizing early warning signals, not lagging data. Single-family starts tell you where future owner-occupant competition may ease, while multifamily permits flag where rent pressure could show up next. By the time completions hit, the damage (or opportunity) is already priced in.
What we’ll do with this:
Going forward, we’ll lead with SF starts and confirm with MF permits when assessing rent resilience by metro—so you see pressure before it lands.
How to read this:
Rising SF (single-family) starts usually mean more resale competition later, while rising MF (multi-family) permits often signal future rent pressure—watch both before they hit the market.
🙏 Thanks for voting—this helps us prioritize which signals we track for you each week.
⏳ TL;DR
Headlines make it sound like buyers suddenly have leverage again. In reality, leverage didn’t magically return — the filters changed.
What matters now:
Inventory ↑ doesn’t equal opportunity everywhere
Rent growth is flat nationally, but resilient in specific ZIPs
Job growth is slower — sector mix matters more than totals
Investor takeaway: Stop asking “Can I negotiate?”
Start asking “Does this ZIP still earn its rent?”
🧲 MARKET CHECK (INVESTOR INTEL)
Mortgage rates: Holding in the low–mid 6s Freddie Mac PMMS
Inventory: Higher YoY, but absorption uneven by metro
Rents: Flat nationally; pockets of strength remain where supply is constrained Apartment List
Jobs: Slower growth overall; healthcare, education, logistics still expanding at the county level BLS QCEW
Why this matters:
This is no longer a “macro” market. It’s a micro selection game.
🏡 THIS WEEK’S MOVE
Most investors are still running 2023 playbooks in a 2026 market.
Back then, you could:
Buy slightly wrong
Assume rent growth
Fix mistakes with appreciation
That window closed.
Today’s edge is filtering, not force.
Before you fall in love with a deal, pressure-test the location:
Are renters still moving in?
Are jobs nearby growing in stable sectors?
Is new supply about to compete with you?
If the answers aren’t clear, no amount of negotiation fixes the math.
🧑💻 INVESTOR CORNER
THE NEW FILTERS THAT MATTER
If you only remember one thing this week, make it this:
“Deals don’t die because of rates. They die because the location stopped supporting rent.”
💡 Before underwriting your potential deal, filter the ZIP with three questions:
Households: Are people still moving into the area?
→ Movers first, hype last.
Sources: United Van Lines, PODS, U-Haul Growth IndexJobs: Are nearby employers hiring in durable sectors?
→ Healthcare, education, logistics > cyclical tech spikes.
Source: BLS QCEW (county-level)Supply: Is new rental stock landing nearby?
→ Today’s “great rent” can be tomorrow’s concession war.
Sources: Census permits/starts, Apartment List vacancy data
🤔 If all three align, you can underwrite confidently.
🚦 If even one breaks, proceed conservatively — or move on. 🏃🏻♂️➡️
🔍 DEAL DECODER
SAME PRICE, DIFFERENT FILTERS
Two properties. Same list price. Same cap rate on paper.
Property A:
Net inbound movers
Stable job base
No major MF deliveries nearby
Property B:
Flat population
Jobs concentrated in one employer
400 units delivering within a mile
Only one of these protects rent when the market tightens.
Lesson:
⚠️ The spreadsheet doesn’t catch this.
✅ Your filters do.
🔗 READ MORE / DATA WE’RE WATCHING
Freddie Mac PMMS – Mortgage rate weekly.
NAR – Inventory & months of supply.
Apartment List National Rent Report — National Rent Report.
Apartment List State of Renting Report
ATTOM – Q3 2025 Home Flipping Report.
New Residential Construction — Oct ’25 (permits/starts/completions) (press release + PDF tables).
BLS QCEW — county job growth
⚖️ COMPLIANCE
Education for real estate investors, not financial/legal/tax advice. Investment property taxes and insurance requirements vary significantly by location. Always verify non-homestead rates and landlord insurance requirements before making offers.
Until next time,
Your 10-minute real estate playbook starts here
