In partnership with
🏁 COLD OPEN
In the spring we made two calls about sellers. In April we said housing supply was tightening, not flooding. In May we said sellers had started pricing right from day one, and in June we told you to stop sorting listings by price cuts.
Both held for months. Both turned in September, for the same reason, and it was not the sellers.
Most new investors don't lose deals because they can't find listings. They lose because they can't tell which deals deserve their time. This week, the filter that answers that question changes.
Your Boss Will Think You’re an Ecom Genius
If you’re optimizing for growth, you need ecomm tactics that actually work. Not mushy strategies.
Go-to-Millions is the ecommerce growth newsletter from Ari Murray, packed with tactical insights, smart creative, and marketing that drives revenue.
Every issue is built for operators: clear, punchy, and grounded in what’s working, from product strategy to paid media to conversion lifts.
Subscribe for free and get your next growth unlock delivered weekly.
📊 MARKET PULSE
WEEK OF OCTOBER 13, 2026
Mortgage rates rose for a seventh straight week. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, up from 7.28%, its highest since November 2023 (Freddie Mac PMMS, October 8, 2026).
Buyers pulled back hard. Pending home sales fell 4% in September to their lowest level since spring 2014, outside April 2020, and fell from a year earlier in all 50 of the largest metros. 14.5% of deals that went under contract in September were canceled (Redfin, October 12, 2026).
Supply is building without new sellers. Active listings were up 6.7% from a year earlier, the fastest growth since February, while new listings fell 4.1% (Realtor.com, week ending October 3, 2026).
Prices are still rising, slowly. The median existing home sold for $417,500, up 1.3%, the 39th straight annual gain. Inventory rose 4.6% to 1.60 million, or 4.8 months of supply against 4.5 a year ago (NAR, October 13, 2026).
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.24% on October 9. Correction: last week we gave it as 5.25% for October 5. It closed at 5.31% that day, its highest close since May 2002 (U.S. Treasury).
Tripwire check (the thresholds we told you we were watching):
Signal | Threshold promised | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|
30-year fixed | 6.75% to 7.50%, set September 29 | 7.40%, inside, 10 basis points under the ceiling. Two weeks above 7.50% resets it. |
Inventory vs. last year | Below last year means supply is tightening, set April 22 | +6.7%. Turned. This issue. |
Price-cut share vs. last year | Below last year means sellers are pricing right from day one, set May 5 | 20.8%, up 0.9 points. Turned. This issue. |
Median sale price | Still rising year over year means no crash, set June 9 | +1.3%, 39th straight month. Holding. |
What it signals: Rates climbed and buyers answered by signing fewer contracts. Homes piled up without a wave of new sellers, and prices are still edging higher nationally. The leverage is real, but it is not everywhere. It sits in the listings that have been sitting.
🎯 THIS WEEK'S MOVE
Put Price Cuts Back in Your Filter
What's happening:
Supply is up 6.7% from a year ago. And in September, 20.8% of listings cut their price, up 0.9 points and the highest September share since 2018 (Realtor.com). It is the first month this year above last year.
Translation:
The change came from the buyer's side of the table. Sellers did not flood in: new listings are down 4.1%. Buyers stepped back: pending sales are at their lowest since 2014, outside the pandemic spring. Homes are piling up because fewer people are signing, not because more people are selling.
Redfin's senior economist put the split plainly: "Those who sell their homes quickly are the ones who are getting savvier about pricing right from day one." The well-priced homes are gone in days. The ones still sitting, and cutting, belong to sellers finding out what their house is worth this fall. That is why a price cut is worth reading again.
Your play this week:
✅ Put price cuts back in your filter. If your metro's price-cut share is above last year, sort by price reductions again. Realtor.com's data library has it by metro.
✅ Keep the other half of June's method. Compare every asking price to sold comps. The cut tells you the seller is moving. The comps tell you how far.
✅ Start with homes that cut and sat. Nationally, homes sold in September had typically been on the market 33 days (NAR). Past your area's typical days on market, plus a cut, is your short list.
✅ Treat "back on market" as a lead until you know why the deal died. See the Deal Lab.
Why you care:
In June a cut was noise, because the sellers worth negotiating with had already priced right. Now a cut on a home that has sat marks a seller learning the market in real time. That is the seller who negotiates.
🔬 DEAL LAB
The Deal That Came Back
Setup: A house lists in August at $340,000 and goes under contract at $335,000. The buyer puts $35,000 down and borrows $300,000, approved when the 30-year averaged 6.65% (Freddie Mac, August 20). By early October it averages 7.40%. The deal falls through. The listing comes back, cut to $325,000.
Trap: "Back on market" reads like a warning. A beginner assumes the inspection found something and moves on.
Reality: Run the buyer's payment.
Scenario | Rate | Monthly principal and interest on $300,000 |
|---|---|---|
Approved in August | 6.65% | $1,926 |
Closing in October | 7.40% | $2,077 |
Difference | $151 a month |
To get back to the August payment at 7.40%, that buyer would need to borrow about $278,200, roughly $21,800 less. Same house, same buyer, and the rate alone moved it out of reach. That gap is part of why 14.5% of September's deals came apart, and why the cut share is climbing.
Fix: Ask the listing agent one question: why did it fall through? If it was the buyer's financing, the house did not fail, the payment did, and the seller already thought it was sold. If it was the inspection, get the report before you offer. Either way, price your offer from sold comps, not from the cut.
Illustrative. A hypothetical house, not a live listing. Rates are Freddie Mac's weekly averages for owner-occupant borrowers; investor loans price higher. Payments are principal and interest only on a 30-year fixed.
📖 MICRO-GLOSSARY
Price-cut share: The percentage of active listings that have lowered their asking price at least once. Above last year means more sellers are adjusting to fewer buyers.
New listings: Homes freshly put up for sale. They measure supply coming in, while active inventory measures what has piled up.
Pending home sales: Homes under contract but not yet closed. The most forward-looking read on what buyers are doing right now.
Days on market (DOM): How long a listing sits before going under contract. Rising DOM signals buyer leverage.
💡 BOTTOM LINE
Sellers did not change this fall. Buyers did, and that put the price cut back to work. Read it next to days on market and sold comps, and it points you at the sellers who are ready to deal.
Not every property is worth your time. The edge is knowing which ones are.
P.S. The June issue that took price cuts out of your filter, The price cut you can't see, still carries the half of the method that stands: reading asking prices against sold comps.
SOURCES
Redfin September 2026 housing market report: pending sales, cancellations, metro breadth, released October 12, 2026
NAR: Existing-home sales increased 1.5% in September: median price, inventory, months' supply, days on market, released October 13, 2026
Realtor.com Weekly Housing Trends, week ending October 3: active and new listings, released October 8, 2026
Realtor.com September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends: price-cut share, released September 30, 2026
Freddie Mac PMMS: 30-year fixed, October 8 and August 20, 2026
U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve: 10-year yield, October 5 and October 9, 2026
COMPLIANCE
Educational only. Not financial, legal, or tax advice. Market data, loan terms, and conditions vary by lender, property, and location. Verify all assumptions with qualified professionals before investing.
Until next time,
Your 10-minute real estate playbook starts here
