THE DEED BRIEF
🏡 THIS WEEK’S MOVE
Rates are steady around 6.30% (30-yr fixed), the lowest in ~a year. Alone, that’s modest; paired with higher inventory, it can open doors to credits or a permanent buydown—if your local supply favors buyers. Freddie Mac
WHY YOU CARE
Mid-6s% reduces P&I a touch; the real win is using credits to cut $/mo (points) or cash-to-close.
Your local MOS (months of supply) tells you how hard to push on those terms.
📊 SNAPSHOT
Rates: 30-yr fixed 6.30% (Oct 9 PMMS), after 6.34% last week—hovering in a narrow band.
👉 So what: consistency helps you plan negotiations instead of chasing volatility.
New-home sales: 800k SAAR (Aug), +20.5% m/m.
👉 So what: when builders move more units, incentives are often in play—use them to buy down your rate or cover closing costs.
Resale inventory: Active listings +20.9% YoY (Aug).
👉 So what: more choice + slower churn = more willingness to say yes to credits/points in many metros (but verify locally).
🔎 MINI DEAL DECODER
Pocket rule for two offers:
💡 Credits (cash-today) shine on short holds or tight cash.
💡 Buydown (points → lower rate) wins when credits cover points or payback < ~24 months.
🤔 Decide in $/mo and over your planned hold (months)—not “% off.”
🧭 Mini Tutorial — 3-minute MOS lookup
Why now: Deals die on bad payment math. Get the real monthly before you bid.
Goal: Find your local Months-of-Supply (MOS) and translate it to negotiation power.
Step 1️⃣ — Pull MOS (free):
Open Redfin Data Center → pick your Metro or County → select Months of Supply. Save the chart to track trend. MOS = how many months it would take to sell current listings at the current sales pace. 4–5 = balanced; >6 buyer-leaning; <4 seller-leaning.
Step 2️⃣ — Cross-check inventory trend:
Use Realtor.com Monthly Trends to see if active listings are actually building in your area (nationally, Aug was +20.9% YoY).
Step 3️⃣ — Turn headline → dollars:
If your MOS is balanced → buyer-leaning, negotiate:
✅ Credits (convert every dollar to $/mo savings).
✅ Permanent buydown—ask for a rate that starts with 5% if credits are rich.
✅ Before touring, run Two-Call Diligence (county tax + landlord insurance) so your monthly is real.
🎯 ONE ACTION FOR TODAY
Save two contacts: your county tax lookup + your broker. Next property you like → run the 2-Call before touring.
🧩 Micro-Glossary (plain English)
Months-of-Supply (MOS): How long it would take for current inventory to sell at the current sales pace. 4–5 = balanced; >6 buyer-leaning; <4 seller-leaning.
Buydown / Points: Up-front cost that lowers your interest rate and monthly payment. Credits can pay for points.
Credits: Seller or lender money you apply at closing—use it to reduce monthly (via points) or reduce cash to close.
⚖️ Compliance
This is education, not financial/legal/tax advice. Markets and rules vary by city/state/property. Validate local regulations, property taxes, insurance, and loan terms before acting.
📚 SOURCES
Freddie Mac PMMS (Oct 9, 2025): 30-yr fixed 6.30%; prior week 6.34%. Freddie Mac
HUD/Census – New Residential Sales (Aug 2025): 800k SAAR, +20.5% m/m. HUD.gov
Aug 2025 Monthly Trends: Active listings +20.9% YoY Realtor.com
Redfin – MOS definition: What MOS means + balanced range. Redfin
Until next time,
Your 10-minute real estate playbook starts here
