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THE DEED BRIEF

📊 THIS WEEK’S POLL

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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS

Where our readers see rent resilience

  • Carolinas Triangle (Raleigh–Durham): 67%

  • Mountain West: 33%

  • FL Gulf Coast, “Soft everywhere,” Other: 0%

Our take (why this tracks):

  • Triangle: Steady job growth in tech/biotech + universities = sticky tenant demand even when concessions pop up nearby.

  • Mountain West: Lifestyle migration + diversified employment nodes (logistics, healthcare, outdoor rec hubs) keep rentals competitive ZIP-by-ZIP.

⏳ TL;DR

Q: Where does rent actually hold up right now?

A: In pockets where three signals align: (1) households moving in, (2) skilled talent arriving, (3) payroll jobs growing.

  • If all three are positive → you can model base rent with a short promo window.

  • If only one or two are positive → use effective rent (concessions-adjusted) and a longer burn-off.
    We cross-check with mover indices (PODS/United), LinkedIn Workforce, and BLS county jobs—then verify vacancy/rent trend on Apartment List.

WHAT MOST INVESTORS MISS

  • List rents lie—price Year-1 using effective rent.

  • Migration is local: a metro can be flat while one school district crushes it.

  • “Hot listing” ≠ hot rental. Rent demand ≠ purchase demand.
    We cross-check heat with mover indices (Redfin migration, LinkedIn Workforce, U-Haul/United Van Lines) before bidding.

🧲 MARKET CHECK (INVESTOR INTEL)

  • Interest Rates: 30-yr fixed averaged ~6.16% the week ending Jan 8 Freddie Mac

  • Rents/vacancy: National median rent down ~1.3% YoY; vacancy at ~7.3% (record high in their index). Units are taking an average of 39 days to get leased after being listed, which is three days longer than one year ago and represents another record high back to 2019. Apartment List

So what: This is a pocket market. Your edge is finding the few ZIPs where household inflow + job adds outrun vacancy.

  • Rates: Low-to-mid 6s on 30-yr fixed → helpful, not decisive.

  • Supply: “Balanced” nationally hides ZIP splits—DOM and price cuts vary by submarket.

  • Rents: Concessions persist near new-build clusters. Always price Year-1 using effective rent, not the flyer.

🏡 THIS WEEK’S MOVE

This Week’s Move — The 3-Step Rent-Resilience Check (≈20 minutes)

Step 1 — Movers (6 min): Are households arriving?
Open one mover source and note direction (Inbound/Outbound).

Step 2 — Talent (6 min): Are higher-income workers arriving?
Scan LinkedIn’s Workforce Report for your metro (directional inflow/outflow).

Step 3 — Jobs (8 min): Are payrolls actually growing where you’ll buy?
Check BLS QCEW for the county your ZIP sits in; log YoY job growth and whether gains are broad (healthcare, pro/tech, logistics, etc.).

Decision rule:

  • 3/3 positive → shortlist pocket; use base rent and a ≤60-day promo burn-off.

  • 1–2 positive → use effective rent (e.g., 11/12 of asking or subtract waived fees ÷ 12) and 90–120-day burn-off.

  • 0 positive → you need a great basis or you pass.

🧑‍💻 INVESTOR CORNER

HOW TO PLUG THIS INTO YOUR UNDERWRITING

  • Rent input:

    • Base rent if Movers + Talent + Jobs are all positive.

    • Effective rent if any signal is weak: (paid months × list rent) ÷ 12 minus (waived fees ÷ 12).

  • Vacancy:

    • Near-jobs strong pockets: 3–4%

    • Mixed signals: 6–8%

  • Credits vs. points:

    • Use seller credits for permanent points only if payback ≤ 24 months; otherwise prefer price or repair credits.

  • Refi: Treat as upside, not plan-A. Buy for Day-1 cash flow.

🔎 DEAL DECODER

The Rent-Resilience Ladder

Step 1 — Price the real income
• If nearby comps show “1 month free,” effective rent = (11 × rent) ÷ 12. Build your model on that number, not the flyer.
Step 2 — Buy payment efficiently
• Ask for seller credits sized to close your $/mo gap only if a permanent buydown pays back ≤ 24 months; otherwise prefer price/repair credits.
Step 3 — Stress the pocket
• Add +15–25% buffer to taxes/insurance and +1–2 pts to vacancy. If still Green, it’s real.

“Signals Disagree” Cheat Sheet

Signals

What it means

Your move

Movers ✅ Talent ✅ Jobs ✅

Rent-resilient pocket

Base rent, short promo window, speed & certainty offer terms

Movers ✅ Talent ✅ Jobs ❌

Inflow without broad jobs

Use effective rent, add vacancy buffer, insist on credits

Any one ✅ (others ❌)

Thin support

Effective rent + longer burn-off; only at great basis

All ❌

Risk stack

Pass or price for pain

Always sanity-check vacancy & concessions on Apartment List before you offer.

🎯 ONE ACTION (90 seconds)

Create a saved note titled “3-Step Pockets — [Your Metro]”. This week, run the check on two ZIPs you actually like. If all three signals are positive for a pocket, schedule showings and run your Two-Call (real taxes + landlord insurance) before touring.

🌐 ADDITIONAL SOURCES

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⚖️ COMPLIANCE

Education for real estate investors, not financial/legal/tax advice. Investment property taxes and insurance requirements vary significantly by location. Always verify non-homestead rates and landlord insurance requirements before making offers.

Until next time,

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